In October 1998, Boris Yeltsin, Vladimir Putin’s predecessor, strongly objected to President Clinton’s bombing of Serbia to liberate Kosovo. The United States and the West ignored him. At that time, Russia’s economy was in shambles. Just over a year later Yeltsin resigned, naming Putin as his successor.

To end the conflict in Kosovo, Russian troops were supposed to act as peacekeepers. It was not allowed to happen. Putin never forgot that insult and, as the new leader of Russia, this was a turning point in his attitude toward the West, according to George Friedman, head of the global intelligence company Stratfor, in his July 21, 2014, article, “Can Putin Survive?” He was determined to rebuild Russian power and prestige. Now, 14 years later, because of the Malaysian Airlines shoot-down, Putin’s days in power may be numbered.

In 2008, the Russian Army invaded parts of Georgia, breaking off two provinces made up of primarily of pro-Russian peoples. This was a forceful statement from Putin to the US and the West that Russia was back as a military power to contend with. The US, under George W. Bush, was powerless to stop the Georgian takeover. It was also a message to Ukraine, according to Friedman, that the West could not be relied upon to protect them either.

Putin continued to increase his prestige in negotiating the removal of chemical weapons from Syria in 2013 and by the success of the Sochi Winter Olympics.

Victor Yanukovych was elected to power in Ukraine in 2010. This increased Putin’s reputation, especially when Yanukovych moved away from economic links with the European Union and moved toward Russia in November 2013.

But beginning in February 2014 Putin’s control of events in Ukraine began to slip, as did his forceful image. Street demonstrations in Kiev protesting Yanukovych’s policies forced Yanukovych to flee to Russia. Putin’s policy for Ukraine fell apart. In March, Putin annexed Crimea after a referendum, regaining popularity with the Russian public

Pro-Russian rebels, apparently aided by Russian Special Forces, according to Friedman, rose up in eastern Ukraine and took several cities, claiming independence from the Ukrainian government in Kiev. A new Ukrainian leader, Petro Poroshenko, was elected in late May. Petroshenko’s policy has been to retake rebellious eastern Ukraine, in spite of Putin’s warnings to stop.

Putin’s strategy has been to tone down the conflict in Ukraine, while sending in more, sophisticated weaponry to the Ukrainian rebels.  At the same time, he has attempted to split the Europeans who need Russian oil and natural gas.

To shore up Russia’s ability to survive further sanctions and to show he is an effective leader, he signed an enormous 50-year natural gas deal with China.

On July 19, Malaysian Flight MH17 was shot down, in all probability by a Russian anti-aircraft missile, putting Putin on the defensive.   Rather than being able to divide the Europeans with their need for Russian natural gas, and the looming winter heating needs, European anger has united them against Russia, again putting Putin’s effectiveness in question.

Greater sanctions have been imposed to a Russian economy already stagnating and, according to Stratfor, is expected to slide into a recession this year. Added to this, $76 billion in foreign investments have fled Russia since the beginning of 2014, due to the crisis in Ukraine.

In 1964 Leonid Brezhnev replaced Nikita Khrushchev after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis fiasco and failure to improve the economy after 10 years in power. Khrushchev had just returned from a vacation when he was “retired” by his protégée.

In August 1991, there was an attempted coup by the Communists who put Mikhail Gorbachev under house arrest as he vacationed at his summer home in Crimea. The USSR was breaking up and Communist hardliners were frightened and worried by the changes wrought by Gorbachev. Even though he was returned to power two days later, this event is seen as one of the major events ending the USSR. Boris Yeltsin pushed Gorbachev out of power.

Putin has built his own coalition of powerful factions as part of his politburo.  He has been good at building coalitions among them, but only because he has been seen to be tough and effective. That reputation has been damaged and could crumble with repercussions of the MH17 shoot-down: more sanctions causing more capital flight and deeper economic problems, with its rivals smelling weakness. Putin better not be taking any vacations any time soon, unless he can pull himself out of his recent nosedive.