Covington and Maple Valley populations increase in first half of 2008

Covington and Maple Valley both grew a little bit in the past year, according to the state Office of Financial Management’s population estimates released July 2.

Covington and Maple Valley both grew a little bit in the past year, according to the state Office of Financial Management’s population estimates released July 2.

Following a slight drop in 2007, Covington has grown by nearly 200 people to a total of 17,390, while Maple Valley now has 20,480 residents – a jump of 460.

City officials keep a close eye on these numbers for a variety of reasons. One is that population size has an impact on how state funding is distributed to the cities.

The annual exercise to estimate the populations of every city and county in Washington by the Office of Financial Management (OFM) will factor into the money which is distributed on a per capita – that is, per person – basis.

Cities use the data to estimate how much state revenue they can expect in the coming year, with the cash going into the general fund. Typically, cities are well into the budgeting process for the next year when these population numbers are released.

In 2000, Covington had 13,783 residents, according to OFM, while in 2007 the number had dropped by about 50 people to 17,190. The drop was attributed to the closure of the Woodside Village mobile home park on Southeast 272nd Street just west of Cedar Heights Middle School in late 2006.

But city officials expected the number to bounce back, calling the dip last year an anomaly, according to Rose Curran, an associate planner for Covington.

“This is quite a bit lower than the growth that we estimated for last year,” Curran said. “We had a net gain of 181 housing units last year. Even with discounts for vacancies and incompletions, that should yield a new population of about 550 (at three persons per household). However, about 121 of the new units were for the Covington Retirement Apartments, which aren’t yet completed or occupied – so technically, they shouldn’t be counted.”

Curran added that the OFM count has in the past typically underestimated population growth in King County, especially in some of the more quickly growing suburbs.

“Looking at our residential development data from 2000 through 2007, I estimated a total population of about 17,900 by April 1,” Curran said. “However, that does include the 200 or so residents that we expect to live in the 121 new units at Covington Retirement. Deducting that group, which would bring our current total down to about 17,700, we still arrive at a current estimate of about 340 more people than OFM does.”

Covington Retirement Apartments is the only significant multi-family development under construction in the city, but Curran said there are numerous single-family subdivisions being built, as well as complete housing units.

“I can’t really give you a timeline on when those will be occupied,” she said. “Generally, we estimate on the basis of building permits issued in the previous year minus demolitions, discount it by a factor, and figure most of those units will be occupied by the end of the current year. There were 73 single-family permits issued through Dec. 31, 2007, but also 13 demolitions, for a net of about 60 units other than the 121 at Covington Retirement.”

Maple Valley city manager Anthony Hemstad said the growth rate of his town isn’t spectacular, but noteworthy.

“We grew another 2.3 percent last year – still considerably faster than the state as a whole, but slowing down from previous years,” he said.

Maple Valley had 14,209 residents in 2000. In 2006 there were 19,140, with the city just surpassing 20,000 people last year.

Since 2000, King County has had more than 100,000 new residents move in, going from 1,786,046 to 1,861,300 in 2007. This year’s estimates, which were calculated in early April, show there are now 1,884,200 people living in the county.

Growth continues statewide, according to OFM, with 99,600 having moved to Washington in the past year, but that’s a moderate and continuing slowdown in growth during the past two years. The majority of the growth has been concentrated in western Washington.

Generally, an important part of the state’s growth is migration, which is typically driven by those seeking or getting new jobs.

Experts suspect that while the state’s economic performance and housing market are among the healthiest in the country, the issues experienced elsewhere are slowing down growth here. Population gains due to migration have dropped from about 81,000 in 2006 to 70,000 in 2007, and now to 59,000 for 2008, according to Theresa Lowe, the state’s chief demographer.

“The severe housing contraction nationwide and slowing economic conditions appear to be limiting the mobility of the population usually associated with labor market opportunities,” Lowe said. “Many job-seekers are finding it difficult to sell their homes or to relocate to accept employment at the price of paying two mortgages for an extended period.”

As a result, Lowe said, “even those states faring better in terms of housing and job opportunities aren’t experiencing the level of migration that would be expected under more normal circumstances.”

Staff writer Kris Hill can be reached at (425) 432-1209 (extension 5054) and khill@reporternewspapers.com